Thursday, October 30, 2008

Venezuela: New Clashes Between Revolution and Counter-Revolution are Being Prepared

By Patrick Larsen in Venezuela
Thursday, 30 October 2008

Alí Primera, a famous Venezuelan Communist songwriter, once wrote the following: “An early revolution, we must make. Because the more it is delayed, the more difficult it will be”. These are indeed profound words and they sum up brilliantly the main problems that the Venezuelan revolution is facing today.



Hugo Chávez has been in power for ten years – a period that has seen numerous attempts on the part of imperialism and the oligarchy to overthrow him and put a halt to the social reforms he has been promoting. Time and again the masses of workers, youth and urban poor have moved to defend the revolution.

Growing Inflation, Crime Rates and Sabotage on the Part of the Capitalists



Despite the determination revealed by the masses over and over again, after ten years of almost permanent mobilization and conflict between the classes, the government has still not managed to solve the main problems of society. Although living standards and access to social welfare have improved, the majority of Venezuelans still live in poverty, the infrastructure and transport systems in the cities are still highly insufficient, house prices are souring and so on. At the same time, the crime rate has reached record levels. In Caracas, the number of deaths as a result of crime rose from 70 deaths annually per 100,000 citizens in 1998 to a staggering 130 in 2007.

Although the Minister of Planning, Haiman El Troudi, has been constantly denying that the crisis in the world economy will affect Venezuela, the fact is that the country is completely dependent on imports, especially of food products. Thus, inflation has hit Venezuela particularly hard. Inflation of food products has reached 15.3%. In Caracas prices increased by 49.9% between July 2007 and July 2008.

The government has been trying to tackle the problems by making an appeal to the capitalists for investment in the economy but these have continued to speculate and deliberately hold back food products to cause scarcity and give an extra impetus to inflation.

The wild swings in the price of oil-price are also having an effect on Venezuela. Some sources indicate that PDVSA, the national oil company, will make 40% cutbacks in their next annual budget. This will inevitably hit many of the social projects, the misiones, who are partly or wholly financed by oil revenues.

The idea of a “Socialismo petrolero” (i.e. Socialism financed by oil-incomes) which has been promoted particularly by the Reformist sector of the government is thus clashing head-on with reality. These people have tried to use the high oil-incomes as an excuse for not expropriating the capitalists. What they forgot was, that the situation of Venezuela depends wholly on the world market, not just the oil-price but also the prices of aluminium and other raw materials that Venezuela is producing en masse. While the Venezuelan economy is extremely sensitive to swings in these prices, it is also very much dependent on imports of other goods, as already mentioned. This creates a potentially disastrous economic situation for the country. The only remedy to really tackle this would be the implementation of a planned economy, capable of starting production in fields such as agriculture, food, clothing, etc.

Partial Measures



The Venezuelan government has adopted some measures aimed at tackling economic sabotage and to the benefit of the workers and poor, notably the nationalization of the giant steel factory, SIDOR in April. To this we must add other nationalizations such as that of Banco de Venezuela, the milk producer ”Lacteos Los Andes”, the whole of the cement industry, the aluminium factory Rialca and others.

These nationalizations have been met with enthusiasm by many workers and youth, who correctly see them as a step in the right direction. An opinion poll conducted in May revealed a 56% majority in favour of the nationalization of the cement industries with only 33% against, with 53.1% in favour of the nationalization of SIDOR and only 30.9% against. Even more significant was the response to the question, “Would you agree with nationalization of the food chain?” (which hasn't been expropriated yet). 50.1% said they were in favour and only 30.9% against.

Socialists should support these nationalizations enthusiastically. However, nationalizations in and of themselves do not solve the question. Nationalizations must be part of a socialist plan of production, so that the productive chain can begin to run smoothly and satisfy the needs of the population. But in Venezuela, the nationalizations are still limited to particular parts of the economy while vast capitalist enterprises in key areas are left untouched. Partial measures are thus wholly unable to go to the heart of the problem. What is needed is not just expropriation of this or that particular factory but rather the expropriation of the bourgeoisie as a class and the setting up of a national Socialist plan of production, discussed and run democratically by the organized working class.

New Conspiracies Within the Army



Hugo Chávez is without doubt an outstanding figure in world politics. The reason why he is being constantly attacked by the international bourgeois media is that he has had the courage to stand up against imperialism and to promote the idea of socialism as a viable alternative. In spite of Chávez appealing to the capitalists to invest and in spite of the fact that he has not yet moved decisively to destroy the economic power of the ruling class, the oligarchy and imperialism remain hell-bent on getting rid of him. They understand that his mere presence is dangerous.

In the past couple of months, a number of events have confirmed that there are still important sectors of the army that are not loyal to Chávez and are opposed to the revolution. On September 10, a plot of prominent active and retired army generals was uncovered. An audio recording revealed a detailed plan to isolate Chávez, capture him by force and carry out a coup d'etat. On September 23 a number of hidden weapons, including a large-range cannon, were found in Zulia (a state ruled by an opposition governor), apparently to be sued in the planned coup against Chávez. Again on September 27, it was revealed that the Venezuelan authorities had arrested a general of the Airforce who was involved in a conspiracy.

These conspiracies reveal a profound instability within the armed forces. The forces of the counter-revolution are working as an organized fraction within the army. This is the inevitable result of the vacillation on the part of the government that has sought to keep the army out of the revolutionary movement, by banning the PSUV from operating within the armed forces.

The result is clear: if you keep revolutionary politics out of the army, you will give room to counter-revolutionary politics. The only way to avoid future conspiracies and coups is to organise the revolutionaries in the army while at the same time extending the work of arming the masses that has begun with the National Reserve. All workers, peasants and youth should enter the reserve and fight to convert it into a real people’s militia with links to the revolutionary movement locally, regionally and nationally.

The PSUV and the PSUV Youth



The contradictions in Venezuelan society are as sharp as ever. This is perhaps seen most clearly in the PSUV (United Socialist Party of Venezuela). After its founding congress in January-February (See Balance Sheet of the PSUV Congress), the party has been going through a process of selection of candidates for the regional and local elections in November. An impressive 2.5 million members participated in the internal elections in June. In some places the left won significant victories (as in Mérida, Vargas and with many local candidates), but in most places the bureaucracy used the apparatus heavily to impose its candidates and the lack of a real left alternative weighed heavily on the final results.

If the PSUV in its first year has been the arena for constant struggles between the reformist right and the revolutionary left, this was even more the case at the founding congress of its new youth organization (See Venezuela: PSUV Youth Congress) held in September in Puerto Ordáz. At this meeting, 1,300 youth from all over Venezuela gathered. There was a tremendously radical, revolutionary mood and a desire to push forward the revolution. This was reflected in the final assembly, where the most popular slogans chanted by the delegates were: “The Youth is Socialist but never Reformist” and ”Open debate – the rank and file has time.”

While an unelected leadership had pushed the idea of statutes that were completely imposed from above and which subsequently tried to stifle any debate, the pressure of the rank and file forced them to make concessions and alter the statutes, giving room for a more democratic structure with elections of the leadership from below.

The PSUV Youth founding congress represented officially 140,000 youth. All over the country these youth are organizing themselves in youth branches and are fighting to radicalise the revolution. The evolution of the PSUV Youth will without a doubt be decisive for the outcome of the Venezuelan revolution as a whole.

Workers Push for Unity and Action



One of the key events that need to be taken into account to understand the present situation of the Venezuelan revolution is the break-up of the congress of the UNT (Union Nacional de los Trabajadores) in May 2006. The UNT represented and still represents in the eyes of millions of Venezuelan workers a potential instrument for the proletariat to act as the main protagonist in the revolution. However, these hopes were cut across in May 2006 when the UNT held its second national congress. While around 4,000 workers assembled in Caracas, a sectarian row broke out between the leaders of the two tendencies grouped around Orlando Chirino and Marcela Máspero. The congress was physically split up, ending in two separate assemblies, while most delegates returned to their homes frustrated.

The fight between the two tendencies was over questions that did not have anything to do with the real burning issues facing the Venezuelan trade union movement. The split however, served to paralyse the UNT for nearly two years. While there have been important workers’ struggles throughout the country (as at Sanitarios Maracay and SIDOR), the UNT has been unable to play a real role as a revolutionary trade union confederation.

The nationalisation of SIDOR in April was a new turning point. The heroic struggle of the SIDOR workers who achieved the re-nationalization of the company, in spite of the attacks of the multinational and the assistance which it received from the reformist sector in the state apparatus, showed that the Venezuelan working class is striving by all its might to advance the revolution.

It was also a clear lesson for the leaders of the different trade union currents who have been discredited by their passivity and complete lack of perspective for the movement. The victory at SIDOR showed the way forward and was a huge inspiration for workers all over Venezuela. It redoubled the pressure from below. Workers began to demand that the UNT be reactivated. Some bureaucratic sectors around the FSBT (Fuerza Socialista de los Trabajadores, a TU tendency around the former Minister of Labour, José Ramon Rivero), tried to explore the mood by proposing a new trade union confederation. However, they had to halt this process and discuss it more in depth, pressurized by their own rank and file.

Since then the pressure for unity and especially for action has been widespread. In July, representatives of the automobile workers met and drew up a resolution demanding unity and a new joint congress of the workers' movement. On September 4 a regional “Congress of Socialist workers” gathered in Zulia, with the participation of 500 people representing 100 trade unions. This congress was called by rank and file trade unions and its concluding resolution called for “a national congress to re-found the Bolivarian trade-union movement”.

Feeling the pressure from below, some initiatives have been taken from the leaders of the movement. On September 20 a national gathering of trade unionists supporting the PSUV was held in Caracas, organized by the PSUV leadership and supported by most of the wings of the UNT. This meeting, which gathered some 300 trade unionists, saw a radical mood and the main point of the final resolution was a demand for the nationalisation of the banks.

Many things indicate that some sort of national congress of the UNT will be held soon. But the decisive question is not just to have unity, but also how to achieve it and for what purpose. The main tendencies in the Venezuelan trade union movement have revealed their incapacity to show a way forward. In fact, they have deliberately maintained the split, which has led to a criminal impasse in the movement.

Unity cannot be built bureaucratically from above. It cannot be ordered by decree. It must be built from below and it must be built around a programme of action democratically discussed and voted by the rank and file of the trade unions. The regional gathering in Zulia indicated the way forward, when it listed a number of demands, such as the implementation of workers’ control and management in factories, nationalisation of the big private enterprises, state monopoly of the foreign trade and the reduction of the working day to 6 hours.

If the UNT were to begin to fight for these demands and take real measures to implement workers’ control in the factories, it would change the balance of forces completely. The bourgeoisie would be seriously threatened and workers in the whole country would move once again to follow the lead of the UNT.

Regional and Local Elections



A new test for the revolution will be the elections for local mayors and regional governors due on November 23. In the previous elections, the opposition only managed to win the governorship of two states (Zulia and Nueva Esparta). But this time, there is a serious danger of losing other important states, such as Carabobo, Táchira, Miranda and Mérida. To this should be added the possible loss of strategic mayors such as Maracaibo (the second biggest city in the country).

The Bolivarian government still enjoys the support of the majority of the masses. But the defeat in the constitutional referendum last December was a clear warning. After 10 years of revolution, the main problems as outlined above, have not been solved. The masses that support Chávez are growing weary of seeing a lack of profound social changes and a lack of a clear perspective to complete the revolution and finish off the power of the oligarchy once and for all. There has not been a real profound change in the leadership and many official PSUV candidates are widely discredited in the population.

That is why the most likely perspective is an electoral setback for the forces that support the revolution. Of course it is difficult to know exactly how big this will be, but the important thing is to seethe general tendency. The revolution is at the crossroads. The enormous contradictions that have accumulated within society – the contradictions between the ruling class and the working class – cannot remain in deadlock forever. They must be resolved one way or the other.

Even a clear victory in these elections would only prepare the way for an even sharper clash with the oligarchy at some point. Already Chávez has stated that if he wins, he will call a new referendum to see if the constitutional reform can pass this time. This would be a step that the oligarchy could not tolerate and it would begin manoeuvring once more.

The fundamental point for Marxists is to understand that all the objective conditions for completing the Socialist Revolution are present in Venezuela. Why then, has this not been done? The reformists blame the masses for a “low level of consciousness”. But if we analyse the past ten years of revolution, we see that it is these very masses that have saved the revolution from defeat in every important clash with the oligarchy. This was the case in 2002 with the coup d'etat and later with the bosses’ lockout. It was also the case in the re-call referendum of 2004 and the presidential elections of 2006.

The problem is not lack of consciousness of the masses, but the fact that the reformist elements in the leadership do not have a clear socialist perspective. The only solution is to expropriate the key levers of the economy (the banks, the land, the food distribution chain and the remaining industries) and put them under the democratic control of the workers and peasants within a Socialist plan of production. This and this alone can solve the urgent problems facing the Venezuelan revolution today.
RENEGADE EYE

30 comments:

FJ said...

Se va a caer, se va a caer. Este gobeirno va a caer...

I'm surprised your not calling for the miltary to incorporate political officers in the ranks to keep an eye on the officers... like in the good ole USSR.

Renegade Eye said...

This is what we told Allende in 1971.

Mariamariacuchita said...

One of the things I love about this site is reading from a divergent point of view.

The article states that the problem with the military is that there are no revolutionaries, in a systematic way, within the military. Why not? Why has Chavez not organized the peasants within the military?

Foxessa said...

An interesting report.

Falling oil prices are making things harder too, and for Cuba as well. Things are very bad in Cuba now. So much of their food supply, as well as housing, and the power distribution grid were destroyed in the hurricanes.

Then there's Haiti.

Love, C.

Renegade Eye said...

Maria: Not controlling the military, can lead to a Chile type situation.

Ultimately the standing army has to be abolished, and replaced by a militia of the armed people.

Foxessa: Some of the Venezuelan government spokespeople, as the article pointed out, are denying the world crisis, is touching Venezuela. That is a big mistake.

I should post more about Cuba.

Ducky's here said...

I believe that one of the largest obstacles to bringing relief to the working class is inflation. Inflation is the devil and there are still myriad theories.

Price controls are a real danger and can generate a serious inflation. I believe Chavez has made this mistake.

The current financial collapse is going to be especially hard on a number of South American heads of state who have taken various positions on the left. Expectations are high, the task is enormous and they have been undermined every step of the way.

The Pagan Temple said...

Ren-

"Ultimately the standing army has to be abolished, and replaced by a militia of the armed people."

Are you kidding? That would be a disaster. It would also cause a civil war. An unprofessional militia of peasants would be disorganized and run rampant through the countryside, drug smuggling would be through the roof, kidnappings, murders, and extortion would be worse than in the old days of the Columbian drug cartels, and it would amount to steady stream of disasters. The economy would plummet.

This would be the worse step possible for the Venezuelan people and as for Chavez, he would become the South American Karzai. It would be about four years of hell before he was finally overthrown, probably with open American aid and a stand-by military government was installed to pave the way for new free elections. By that time Chavez would be nursing his wounds in Havana and would likely never be heard from again.

Renegade Eye said...

Ducky: The funny part about the inflation in Venezuela, is that it is way lower, than any previous government. When Chavez came to power, it was at >100%. That doesn't mean it isn't a problem, but it is improved.

Pagan: In reply to FJ, I have a link, to an article on Marxist.com, written before Allende was overthrown. See the warnings we gave him about the military.

sonia said...

An early revolution, we must make

numerous attempts on the part of imperialism and the oligarchy to overthrow him


I think you're confused about the meaning of the world "revolution".

"Revolution" means OVERTHROWING PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POWER.

Not preventing their overthrow...

The real revolutionaries in Venezuela are those "imperialistic oligarchs" you are denouncing....

It's interesting how you always assume that Chavez's enemies MUST be reactionary, while Chavez's supporters MUST be progressive.

Why on Earth would be believe that ???? It's complete insanity... Every known fact about Venezuela contradicts your insane assumptions.

The Pagan Temple said...

Sonia-

If I understand this right, and I'm by no means certain that I do, Trotskyists believe in perpetual revolution. It never stops. They don't believe in an established bureaucratic government of any kind. In this case, they also still see an entrenched oligarchy, so this revolution is by no means finished. It still has a ways to go. They see Chavez presently as a moderate socialist, not much more progressive than a liberal Democrat in the US.

Notice how Ren supports disbanding the professional army and "replacing" it with a militia of armed peasants. Talk about the rule of law being chucked out the window.

Under his scenario, Chavez is no ruler, he is just a figurehead who oversees the growth of the "real" progressive movement. What else could he be under these terms?

What I would like to know is, if Chavez were to order the military to disband, what if they tell him no?

FJ said...

I think RE forgets the events and circumstances that lead to Chavez coming to power. His first "coup" was unsuccessful. Shortly after getting elected, the country was devastated by flooding. It was Chavez's use of the military to bring support and relief to the people affected that lead the poor to back him. W/O the military, Chavez is nothing but a third rate caudillo. With it, he's a return to the Perez Jimenez/military dictatorship era.

FJ said...

Socialism is the best form of government during wartime, and the worst form of government during peacetime. Because lets face it, people will not stand totalitarian dictators unless they're faced with an external threat... which is why Chavez keeps drilling his faux-militia's in preparation for a north American invasion... and why he needs to maintain the pretense that the gringos and oligarchs are out to get him.

Renegade Eye said...

Sonia: You read a different post than the one you are commenting on. It is highly critical of certain followers of Chavez.

I'm not Chavista or Bolivarian. I believe the PSUV is a party that should be worked within, because it's a labor party.

Certain followers of Chavez, are in fact the major obstacles to revolution.

Pagan: The theory of permanent revolution is not revolution is an eternal state. I'll explain it if I'm asked to.

The main political influence over Chavez and people around him is Heinz Dieterich. He invented the concept of "21st century socialism." It is actually just a reformist theory. It is classic social democracy under the rhetoric.

See this. It is the advice we gave Allende when he was in power. Read the part about the military. f Chavez faces organized opposition in the army, he has to purge them, or end up like Allende.

FJ: In 2002 Chavez was inches away from being up against the wall.

I

sonia said...

Ren,

, It is highly critical of certain followers of Chavez.,

Yeah, the problem is it's critical of the more MODERATE followers of Chavez, not of the rabid Pol Potian radicals...

, end up like Allende.,

Allende wasn't overthrown because he was too soft on the military. He was overhrown because he was leading Chile into an economic disaster, just like Chavez is doing with Venezuela.

Pagan,

, Trotskyists believe in perpetual revolution. It never stops,

If the revolution was perpetual, the next head to roll would have been Chavez's empty cabeza. But don't count on it. In Venezuela, the revolution is OVER. Now, it's time to exterminate all the opposition, impose a totalitarian dictatorship and prevent another revolution.

troutsky said...

Sonia rationalizes Pinochets violent overthrow but criticizes the democrat Chavez. By these standards one would think she supported Pol Pot? Just a mess of contradiction and illogical thinking.

FJ said...

In 2002 Chavez was inches away from being up against the wall.

So he says...

Renegade Eye said...

Sonia: Unemployment under Allende was 4.2% and under Pinochet 22%. In 1970 20% of the population were below the poverty line, and when Pinochet was in power it reached 40%. The GDP went down 19% under Pinochet.

There are no Pol Pot radicals in Venezuela. If anything Chavez is too concillatory.

Troutsky: The problem stems from thinking the idea of "21st century socialism," is anything more than social democracy.

FJ: The Nation in the 1930s claimed Trotsky faked the first assasination attempt (bullets) against him in Mexico. Police evidence proved them wrong. The basis for their accusation was that Trotsky didn't seem as nervous as he should be.

The Stalinists tried a direct hit against him. The accused was a pro-Stalin artist friend of Diego Rivera.

sokari said...

Apologies for commenting off post but I wondered if you would mind linking to the blog www.lovinsky.org and maybe highlighting the abduction of Lovinsky Pierre-Antoine. We are desperately trying to raise the profile of his kidnapping. The blog is supported by Haiti Action and the Global Womens Strike

Many thanks
Sokari

Renegade Eye said...

Sokari: I'll link up when Blogrolling is fixed.

You did well on BBC.

Ducky: Price controls don't work with capitalism in the long run, because it's an unplanned system.

sonia said...

Ren,

Allende was 4.2% (...) under Pinochet 22% (...) In 1970 20% (...) 40% (...) 19%

Your statistics are misleading. The fact is that under Allende (1970-1973), the Chilean economy took a nose dive and that's why he was overthrown. The fact that under Pinochet the recovery was very slow is another matter entirely.

Troutsky,

Sonia rationalizes Pinochets violent overthrow but criticizes the democrat Chavez (...) a mess of contradiction and illogical thinking.

There is no contradiction. I never criticized Chavez when he obeyed democratic rules (I praised him when he accepted the referendum defeat). I denounced Chavez for trying to seize power in a coup d'état in 1992, and for threatening his opponents with jail terms. That's hardly "democratic". As for Pinochet, I never praised his coup d'état. I praised him for rebuilding Chilean economy, for voluntarily stepping down and for allowing democracy to flourish in 1990, something Chavez is incapable (on economy) and unwilling (on stepping down) to do...

troutsky said...

Just as calls for Morales to frce his hand and expropriate all means of production and land were premature ( the current process of constitutional referendum and regional ally building is successful) I think these calls for immediate expropriation are premature. The process is playing out with steps forward and backward but all the while deepening social relations and solidarity.

troutsky said...

sonia, we disagree on economic revival under Pinochet.

Renegade Eye said...

Troutsky: See this story about Morales's concessions to the oligarchy. Morales reformism is opposed far beyond revolutionary socialists. He has gone into direct negotiations with those who are trying to violently stop him.

Chavez's procrastinations are going to cost him the November elections.

The Communist Party is running candidates against PSUV from the right.

Sonia: Rosales is trying to lead an autonomy movement. That is CIA bought and paid for. Venezuela's borders are drawn. He should be jailed.

Again Chavez will recognize democracy. I'm sure he'll lose in November several offices.

sonia said...

Troutsky,

we disagree on economic revival under Pinochet.

Read this.

Renegade Eye said...

It is no surprise there was less inflation under Pinochet, considering how little he spent on social services.

His Social Security program is being discredited by countries that followed. Last week Argentina changed to a government subsidized system. With the world economy in the tank, private SS is dangerous.

The numbers in my post are more important than what Epoch Times had.

sonia said...

Ren,

Rosales is trying to lead an autonomy movement. That is CIA bought and paid for. Venezuela's borders are drawn. He should be jailed.,

Canada's borders are drawn too. But nobody is jailing the Parti Quebecois politicians who want Quebec's independence, and nobody accuses them of being "bought and paid by the CIA".

Chavez is a totalitarian thug.

Renegade Eye said...

Quebecois are not on the CIA payroll.

Small countries are pocket change of imperialism. There is no national liberation under capitalism.

Look at Puerto Rico. It makes no difference if they were seperate from the US. They couldn't survive with complete autonomy.

sonia said...

Ren,

Quebecois are not on the CIA payroll.

Neither is Rosales.

I don't trust Chavez's word for it. It's mighty convenient that the only Venezuelan politician who had the courage to run against Chavez in the last presidential election, would be a CIA agent.

And even if he is, it is Obama's CIA now...

Anonymous said...

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