Thursday, March 17, 2011

Why Has the Revolution Stalled in Libya

Written by Fred Weston
Thursday, 17 March 2011


23 February, Benghazi. Photo: EndTyranny01

After taking one town after another in the early days of the Libyan revolution, now the insurgents are having to come to terms with the fact that Gaddafi has managed to hold together a significant section of his special security forces and is hitting back. How does one explain this dramatic turnaround?

Read the rest here



RENEGADE EYE

27 comments:

The Pagan Temple said...

I can explain it real easy. Qaddafi doesn't give a shit what Obama and Hillary Clinton thinks, or anybody else, so when they tell him, directly or indirectly, to go easy, he's going to tell them to kiss his Bedouin ass. And that's exactly what's he's done.

James Gundun said...

Clearly multiple factors have combined to limit the effectiveness of Libya's opposition. Social division, unpreparedness for the future, government propaganda, and legitimate fear of AQ have created a similar dampening effect on Algeria and Yemen. I would add in Libya that the opposition overplayed their military hand; energized by the situation, they formed too quickly into conventional units in hopes of seizing the capital. Lack of leadership may explain this premature move, but in any event it has weakened the opposition's strategy. If they decided to wage a nation-wide insurgency to grind down Gaddafi's economic safety, they could probably stall until a no-fly zone can be established. Spread Gaddafi as thin as possible rather than concentrate his forces in major cities, and go to work targeting the weakest areas.

On the Western front, the possibility always exists for uncontrolled resentment. However, U.S. officials are making no attempt, relatively speaking, to clarify their intent in Libya. They need to take control of their message instead of letting others control it.

Speedy G said...

Your "read the rest here" link is dead.

Renegade Eye said...

Pagan: You're correct. I would add if he had an incentive, he'd listen. There are none for him.

Speedy: Thank you. I fixed it.

James G: The link wasn't working at this post. The opposition shouldn't have organized into military units. They should have made appeals to the working class as a class for itself.

The US is over stretched with Iraq and Afghanistan.

The article explains the limits of a military occupation by the imperialists. It also shows the weaknesses of Gaddafy's strategy.

Speedy G said...

The lie from the article:

After decades of brutal dictatorship there were no organisations of the working class of any kind, not even of the type that existed in Tunisia,

The reality

97% of Libyans are Islamic. They organize out of their mosques.

Islamic socialism. It's real.

Speedy G said...

That's how Gaddafi came to power in the first place.

Speedy G said...

The Spirit of the Jasmine Revolution still lives.

Speedy G said...

The unions and workers have NOTHING to do with what's going on in Libya. What going on is a capitalist revolt AGAINST Islamic Socialism. On the origins of the Jasmine Revolution from Wikipedia:

Twenty-six year old Mohamed Bouazizi had been the sole income earner in his extended family of eight. He operated a purportedly unlicensed vegetable cart for seven years in Sidi Bouzid 190 miles (300 km) south of Tunis. On 17 December 2010 a policewoman confiscated his cart and produce. Bouazizi, who had such an event happen to him before, tried to pay the 10-dinar fine (a day's wages, equivalent to 7USD). In response the policewoman slapped him, spat in his face, and insulted his deceased father. A humiliated Bouazizi then went to the provincial headquarters in an attempt to complain to local municipality officials. He was refused an audience. Without alerting his family, at 11:30 am and within an hour of the initial confrontation, Bouazizi returned to the headquarters, doused himself with a flammable liquid and set himself on fire. Public outrage quickly grew over the incident, leading to protests.[39][40] This immolation and the subsequent heavy-handed response by the police to peaceful marchers caused riots the next day in Sidi Bouzid that went largely unnoticed, although social media sites such as Facebook and YouTube featured images of police dispersing youths who attacked shop windows and damaged cars. Bouazizi was subsequently transferred to a hospital near Tunis. In an attempt to quell the unrest President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali visited Bouazizi in hospital on 28 December 2010. Bouazizi died on 4 January 2011.

The Pagan Temple said...

"The unions and workers have NOTHING to do with what's going on in Libya. What going on is a capitalist revolt AGAINST Islamic Socialism."

No, its a bullshit revolt of one group of religious thugs against another group of secular thugs, with the US State Department up to their eyeballs in the muck while claiming their hands are clean. And yes, the international unions are in on it as well.

This has as much to do with capitalism as Michael Moore has to do with Santa Clause. Aside from a few surface resemblances there's nothing there.

Speedy G said...

You're wrong, PT. Islamic Socialism isn't "cutting it" any more in the Arab World. The petro-serfs are leaving for the "promise" of greener pastures (a say in government)... but yes, the greener pastures ARE still tbd.

The Pagan Temple said...

I don't care. I don't want to do a damn thing to help the fuckers. I've never known of them doing a damn thing to help anybody else, in fact I've never heard of them doing anything towards anybody else besides causing them grief. So they can all go to hell. Why should I give a shit if they live under dictators? Fuck them and the camel they rode in on.

Renegade Eye said...

SpeedyG: The lie from the article:

After decades of brutal dictatorship there were no organisations of the working class of any kind, not even of the type that existed in Tunisia,

The reality

97% of Libyans are Islamic. They organize out of their mosques.

Islamic socialism. It's real.


Your own statement contradicts your accusation. Free people use political parties and unions to talk politics. They use mosques, when there is no alternative. There was no lie in the post.

Capitalist revolt? Where is the capitalist class? That country still has remnants of tribalism, and you say there are capitalists in revolt. Will they be as powerful and independent as capitalists in US and UK? Capitalist classes in poor countries, are weak. They can only be flunkies of capitalists of big countries. Explain your fantasy to me.

Why does this post oppose Gaddafy? Are you going to repeat your nonsense about socialist purity? Why is it that I don't care if the government calls itself capitalist?

Pagan: Your position is clear to me.

The Pagan Temple said...

Good. I don't believe in this enemy of my enemy bullshit, certainly not when it comes to the potential long-term consequences inherent in this matter.

The Pagan Temple said...

And you're not any better than Titan, Ren. You both support this bunch, though for the opposite reasons, either one of which is the heights of delusional thinking. You think they'll form the vanguard of some grand new socialist society of the Middle East. Give me a freaking break.

Speedy G said...

lol! Beggars crying over being denied the right to support their families...

Some "elite". lol!

"Where are the capitalist class?

Bwah-ha-ha-ha.

"What you have not lost, you have. But you have not lost horns. Therefore you have horns." -- Eubulides of Miletus

Titan said...

Obama just Tomahawked Libya.

If ever there was a "War for Oil", this is it. Europe needs diesel if Germany's going to deactivate all her nukes and France is going to get JP5 for her jets.

Titan said...

Score one for the Twitter Imperialists on the Left!

Titan said...

What's our "Exit Strategy," Ren?

I guess your support for the Rebel uprisings AND imperialist non-intervention didn't work out.

Got any puppets in mind for the next Workers Soviet/ Community Organizer in Chief job for the next Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya?

Renegade Eye said...

Titan: Got any puppets in mind for the next Workers Soviet/ Community Organizer in Chief job for the next Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya?

Drop dead. I don't support dictators.

I support the opposition to Gaddafy.

There is no exit strategy. The Arab Revolution isn't going to be stopped or diverted by this adventure.

Pagan: All I care about in the short term, is getting rid of the dictatorship.

Speedy: Where is the Libyan capitalist class?

The Pagan Temple said...

But you won't get rid of it. That's the point. You're just exchanging one dictator for another dictatorial regime. Guaranteed. Oh, maybe not immediately. But just wait. Whether its Islamist, or some kind of socialist tyranny, one thing I can promise you it will not be is democratic, at least not in the normally accepted meaning of the term.

Titan said...

One man's "Arab Revolt" is another man's "Jasmine Revolution".

The Islamic Caliphate MUST be built, either way. Can you blame the COMINTERN internationalists if they mistake the Islamicist goal for their own? I mean they're so "sim-i-liar" in nature.

Bwah-ha-ha-ha-ha.

troutsky said...

Please Pagan, explain the normative definition of democracy for us.

The author claims enforcing a no-fly zone requires foreign boots on the ground. This is false.

I also don't believe this is a socialist revolution or Islamic caliphate. People want to be citizens and have a voice and opportunity. They will be elated at first, then disappointed, then deepen the struggle for autonomy and sovereignty over their economic lives. Which is what we need to be doing.

Speedy G said...

Where is the Libyan capitalist class?

Where would you expect to find it in a Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya? Within the Revolutionary Vanguard.

Renegade Eye said...

Titan: The exit strategy is with the big white elephant in the room, the economy and two lost wars.

The Islamic Caliphate MUST be built, either way. Can you blame the COMINTERN internationalists if they mistake the Islamicist goal for their own? I mean they're so "sim-i-liar" in nature.

Comintern? Stalin abolished it in WWII.
You're a moron. You were for arming Islamists in Afghanistan. If you don't believe Islamists are not about capitalism you know nothing. See Pakistan. They were always used against socialists. You doubt that they have big bank accounts?

SpeedyG: Where is the capitalist class in any poor country? Nowhere. There isn't even one in China.

Troutsky: I don't think imperialism cares if Gaddafy is in power or not. This assault is for derailing the Arab Revolution.

I agree with you about democracy.

Pagan: Troutsky is right.

Titan said...

Stalin abolished it in WWII

Bwah-ha-ha-ha.

That'll learn them Trotskyites and all their fellow travelers!

roman said...

It would be great if there was a way to take an anonymous national Libyan census with a questionaire asking the masses what it is they really want. Since that will never happen, the punditry regarding what these Libyan revolutionaries want is at best a biased opinion.
A Caliphate, Islamic socialism, Islamic theocracy ala Iran, secular capitalism pretending to be Islamic ala Turkey.. who realy knows? It's all conjecture at best.
The known is as follows: Gadhafi is a terrorist and is mentally unbalanced and dangerous. Hopefully, some true Patriot in his inner circle will do everyone a favor and take the necessary action to end the Libyan people's future suffering under this maniac.

Thersites said...

When Shari'a law comes to Libya, the Left can all rejoice. And when the Imans transform Libya into a theocracy like Iran, they can all pat themselves on their backs and move on to their next Twitter Imperialist campaign...