Saturday, February 12, 2011

Iran: In The Footsteps of Tunisia and Egypt

Written by Hamid Alizadeh
Friday, 11 February 2011



History is indeed being written with the fall of Mubarak and as the whole of the Middle East and North Africa erupts in one revolutionary upheaval after another. This is also now having an impact in Iran as the lines are once again being drawn for a new round of battles since the eruptions that started one and a half years ago. The focus is now on the call for a demonstration on Monday, February 14.

RENEGADE EYE

43 comments:

Daniel Hoffmann-Gill said...

One thing for sure, the seismic events in Egypt keep rippling out amongst neighbouring countries, reminds me of the old 'no tone domino shall fall' logic.

They are falling pretty fast at the moment.

Fantastic.

Titan said...

Yes, by all means, keep praising the victories of religious fanatics who'll soon be stoning Christians, hanging homosexuals, and beheading all other heretics antithetical to toeing the shari'a line.

Daniel Hoffmann-Gill said...

Pardon?

Wow, you have a personal narrative you're projecting very strongly onto events in that part of the world that has no basis in fact.

Either that or you're joking.

Hope it's the latter.

Titan said...

...but what am I saying. The Left has been supporting and funding the Pseudostinian cause and its' fighters in the army of Islam for going on 60 years now in the vain belief that somehow "labour" was a factor... What do they care about the rights of 8 million non-Islamic Egyptians?

All that remains for the "usefuls" remaining on the Left media to do is to cover up and prevent disclosure of attacks on Copts over the next year and then explain the demographic changes of Christians in Egypt falling from 10% to 0% and thereby prevent a new chapter in a Christian "Exodus" from being written.

You've got work to do, my useful idiots. Chop-chop!

Daniel Hoffmann-Gill said...

As I thought, you're joking.

Titan said...

Yes, either I'm joking or you're hallucinating...

...and I suspect the latter is much more likely.

Daniel Hoffmann-Gill said...

Yes, you're joking, you have to be, you're using wildly inaccurate and generic terms like 'Left' and made up terms like Pseudostinian, whilst completely ignoring the evidence that Islam has no part in driving either of the uprisings.

You speak of hallucinations but it is you making stuff up.

You are also taking your own opinion and projecting it, baselessly, in order to fulfil your own strange views on what will happen.

You've said your piece here, fine, now be gone.

Titan said...

whilst completely ignoring the evidence that Islam has no part in driving either of the uprisings.

No part? Now that statement is prood positive that "Denial" is more than a river in Egypt. Is there this kind of unrest occurring anywhere other than majority Islamic countries?

Titan said...

"Islam playing no part" yet the Egyptian/Tunisian/Algerian "street" becoming most violent immediately after Friday prayer calls... is that merely "coincidence"?

Titan said...

O ye who believe! When the call is proclaimed to prayer on Friday (the Day of Assembly), hasten earnestly to the Remembrance of Allah, and leave off business (and traffic): That is best for you if ye but knew!

And when the Prayer is finished, then may ye disperse through the land, and seek of the Bounty of Allah: and celebrate the Praises of Allah often (and without stint): that ye may prosper.
—Qur'an, sura 62 (Al-Jumua), ayat 9-10

Titan said...

and Iran... praising events.

Since when do Iranian Shi'a praise Egyptian Sunni's? It can't have anything to do with Islam, can it? Perhaps it's a shared faith in the efficacy of secular democracy?

Titan said...

Oh, wait. Labour Unionists are organizing the protests of the proletariate, so it's all going to turn out GREAT in the end...

Talk about people with "a personal narrative... projecting very strongly onto events in that part of the world that has no basis in fact."

Titan said...

Whoever wrote this headline...

"Egyptian Workers Take The Lead"

...must take the "personal narrative" thingey to an extreme.

Titan said...

The organizing elements of all these protests are mosques, NOT union shops.

And no, there are no "community organizers" organizing the mosques. Oh wait... there is one. It's called the Muslim Brotherhood. Perhaps you've heard of it? The number 2 at al Qaeda was once a member. And the number 1, learned how to organize mujahadeen fighters in Afghanistan in the 80's from a "brother".

Daniel Hoffmann-Gill said...

I get the impression you've long made your mind up, you're recycling American right-wing talking points, embittered as it is by it's fear of Islam and democracy.

This makes you appear a supporter of Mubarak, which is not a good ally to find yourself with.

In reality, there is no evidence that Islam is driving what occurred in Tunisia and Egypt and plenty that it is a popular uprising, mainly driven by the vast raft of unemployed young people in both those countries, tired of the exploitation and corruption of their governments.

These facts may be hard for you to deal with but they remain so until other evidence makes itself apparent.

Your ignorance is shown in your desperation to make this about Islam, clearly you're bigoted towards that religion, you also fail to see that Iran's praise was littered with efforts to make this seem like an Islamic revolution when that is clearly there effort sat propaganda, not Egypt's.

You're also struggling to grasp that the Muslim Brotherhood did not instigate, nor is a major driving force in the revolution.

You're written your own narrative, you will see what you want to fulfil that.

I'm done here. You have no interest in reality but merely a platform to propagate your own world-view.

Thankfully, I'll not have to read your fevered missives any more.

Titan said...

Your claim that there is "no Islamic involvement" is also a "narrative". A narrative entirely separate and devoid of the reality inherent in the facts. So get over yourself, already, and either provide some facts in support of your argument, or facts in opposition. Shooting the messenger is merely the "bad form" of a lost argument.

In reality, there is no evidence that Islam is driving what occurred in Tunisia and Egypt and plenty that it is a popular uprising

No evidence? Really???

Perhaps you should now modify your narrative, as incontrovertible evidence proving the falsity of your argument has been presented.

The Sentinel said...

Renegade Eye:

“Muslims and Christians are close in Egypt.”

I have to say, even by the anti-reality standards of the far-left – that takes the cake.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

In fact you can hear for yourself just how close they really are in this video taken during the bombing of Alexandria’s Al-Qiddissin Church on the New Years Eve service where 21 were killed, 70 wounded and violent clashes followed shortly after:

Video

I think celebrating and chanting “Allah al Akbar” as your fellow citizens are dying is as far away from “closeness” as it gets.

And of course, this is just the latest in a long line of Islamic hate towards the Copts – just to highlight a few events:

The most significant of recent years was the 2000–2001 El Kosheh attacks, in which Muslims and Christians were involved in bloody inter-religious clashes. "Twenty Christians and one Muslim were killed after violence broke out in the town of el-Kosheh, 440 kilometres (275 miles) south of Cairo"

Report

In 2006, three churches were attacked in Alexandria, left one dead and 16 injured.

Report

In Marsa Matrouh, a mob of 3,000 Muslims attacked the city's Coptic population, with 400 Copts having to barricade themselves in their church while the mob destroyed 18 homes, 23 shops and 16 cars.

Report

“When crimes take place, there are indiscriminate arrests of equal numbers of Christians and Muslims, followed by reconciliation meetings. In 99% of cases perpetrators go unpunished.”

Report

In fact, members of U.S. Congress have expressed concern about "human trafficking" of Coptic women and girls who are victims of abductions, forced conversion to Islam, sexual exploitation and forced marriage to Muslim men

Report

In fact it was only on the personal instructions of Mubarak that in 2002, Coptic Christmas (January the 7th) was recognized as an official holiday.

Report

And the demographics tell the real tale:

The Egyptian Census of 1897 reported the percentage of Non-Muslims in Urban Provinces as 14.7%( 13.2% Christians, 1.4% Jews). The Egyptian Census of 1986 reported the percentage of Non-Muslims in Urban Provinces as 6.1%( 5.7% Christians, 0% Jews)

And will this now improve?

Not likely.

Most regional analysts reckon that the Muslim Brotherhood would win any free election, and it is certainly something that Israel takes seriously.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak:

"The real winners of any short-term election, let's say, within 90 days, will be the Muslim Brotherhood, because they are already ready to jump … That should be avoided in Egypt, because that could be a catastrophe for the whole region."

He said the Brotherhood did not "initiate" the uprising but that "they are always deployed to take advantage of it."


Report

And then we will really see just how “close Muslims and Christians” really are in Egypt.

The Sentinel said...

Just noticed the comment was made in the last thread - I dont think it matters anyway - it is still relevent to the debate.

Titan said...

Wow. That's really some great research. No doubt Daniel Hofman-Gill will now call you a bunch of names and then pretend none of your points presented were valid by making another ostrich-like statement, like that Islam is "in reality" a religion of peace.

Useful idiot... thy proper name is "Leftist".

Renegade Eye said...

Daniel: I agree with you.

In Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood spent days opposing demonstrations, and only joined later. They fear revolution, as much as Mubarak did.

Young Iranians are secular. Most were not alive in 1979, or have no memories of war with Iraq.

Titan: Why do Iranians support the Egyptian Revolution, because it's inspiring.

Why did Hamas break up demonstrations, supporting the Egyptian Revolution? Why did the Palestinian Authority support Mubarak?

Why did the US support the Muslim Brotherhood against Nasser?

Sentinel: There was recently an incident, after a church was attacked, where several hundred Muslims, became a defense guard for the church.

The Sentinel said...

Renegade Eye:

Yes I am aware of that single incident – as inspiring as it is rare - but it hardly warrants your fantastic claim that “Muslims and Christians are close in Egypt” in the face of the realities listed above.

And the appalling list above is just a tiny portion of the hate, violence, terror and injustice that Egyptian Copts face on a daily basis from Muslims: Both from their fellow citizens and from the inaction of the police.

One solitary incident of a few hundred Muslims ringing a church shortly after other Muslims blew another one up and celebrated as people lay dying does not make the harmonious paradise you are clearly try to paint.

There is no parallel or inverse situation anywhere in the western world where Muslims are (at the moment) a minority. These conditions exist to varying degrees whosesoever there is a non-Muslim minority in a majority Muslim nation.

It is natural, it is predicable, and it is inevitable.

Ducky's here said...

I think Algeria is more likely.

The Pagan Temple said...

I think it should be pointed out that nobody knows who the Egyptians were who protected the Copts. So far as anyone knows, they might have been Mubarak's agents, trying to paint a picture of Egypt as a place where the average Egyptian citizen gets alone wih each other despite their differences. It would be in their long-term best interests to do so, seeing as how the lion's share of tourists come from non-Muslim countries, and tourism is the only thing that keeps Egypt afloat.

I wouldn't read too much into it. Right now, as I type these words, there are numerous Egyptians who make their living off western tourists who are desperate to resume the status quo. It might not be too awful long before the Mubarak years are seen as a golden age.

Ducky's here said...

Fact is, Pagan, the Copts and Muslims were out there together in the square.

Who attacked the Copts, maybe Mubarek's crew so that Americans can piss their pants and scream "Muslim Brotherhood" every time they see a big scary Muslim.

The Pagan Temple said...

Ducky, that is not very likely. If Mubarak had done something like that, my guess is it would have been in order to bring some group of Islamists out into the open so they could infiltrate them, or more than likely just arrest them sight unseen. But more than likely, it was Islamists who attacked the Copts, just as more than likely it was average Egyptians who protected them, probably Egyptians that lived in the same neighborhoods as the Copts, knew them well, and probably did business with them.

The point is, its not a good idea to make too much out of it. Just because a relative handful of Egyptians protected some of the Copts whom they knew and had friendship and business relations with, doesn't mean a Copt could feel safe traveling outside their own particular neighborhoods and openly live and act as a Copt.

When it comes to Muslim imams, these are some vicious fucks you are dealing with, and should be treated accordingly. You can candy-coat them all you want, but they are some despicable fuckers whom the world would be better off without, along with the fucking maggots they breed.

Sorry, that's just the way I feel.

Titan said...

What will "free elections" likely bring to Egypt...

The Egyptians are divided in assessing whether Islam should play a significant political role in the country today. But a massive majority of 85 percent believes it should. Islam should not only be a faith; Islam must have power.

What kind of Islam? Pew asks whether people distinguish between “innovators” and “fundamentalists” within Islam. Most Egyptians do not. But among those who do distinguish, far more people identify themselves with the fundamentalists than with innovators — 59 percent versus 27.

Other aspects of the Egyptian attitudes are also astounding:

82 percent are in favor of punishing adultery with stoning to death. 77 percent believe that thieves and robbers should be punished by flogging or the amputation of a hand. Fully 84 percent believe that one should be punished by death if he leaves Islam!


Of course, what happened in Egypt had nothing to do with Islam... and if the Egyptians should vote for a theocracy... maybe the workers can organize the next revolution... ;)

The Pagan Temple said...

I want to point out something else here. You know what they call Egypt? "The world's largest Arab country".

You know what that means, don't you? What that means, bluntly speaking, is that the average "Egyptian" citizen is every bit as much "Egyptian" as modern day "Palestinians" are "Philistines".

I think its time to start calling all these people something else that's more descriptive of what they really are. They are Arab interlopers who have over the course of centuries committed cultural and ethnic genocide against one of the world's truly great civilizations. The same as Syria, Iraq, etc. If Persia had remained Sunni Muslim, there would probably be nothing there but a bunch of fucking Arabs as well.

Israel can't let the fucking bombs start flying fast enough to suit me.

The Sentinel said...

Ducky:

“Fact is, Pagan, the Copts and Muslims were out there together in the square”

The fact is that very small numbers were out there together in the square – not “the Copts and Muslims”

Far, far fewer numbers then have been murdered, assaulted or terrorized by their Muslim compatriots.

The facts of the real general relationship between Muslims and Copts are illustrated in just the small portion of horrific events above.

If you have evidence that Mubarek organized the endemic murders and attacks against the Copts – even decades before he gained power – then feel free to share it.

Otherwise, having been to Egypt many times one thing I can assure you is that Mubarek coveted tourists (well, their cash) and did everything he could to reassure, protect and encourage them into Egypt – and that meant keeping as much of a lid on anti-Copt violence as possible.

This is also why every successive US leader (and British too) welcomed Mubarek and financed him: He kept the religious nuts at bay.

Confused from Eagen MN said...

can i just check that the iranians demonstrating now against the islamic regime in iran want to replace it with another islamic regime?!?!?!

or have i got this "islam is behind everything, be afraid, be very afraid, the muslims are coming for your freedoms" thing very wrong?

The Sentinel said...

Ahh, the return of the ‘anonymous’ comment.

What a coincidence.

And way off the mark once again.

The main opposition leader, Mir Hossein Mousavi helped Mohammad Beheshti found the Islamic Republican Party in 1979, in order to assist the establishment of the Islamic Republic in Iran and hasten the overthrow of Iran's monarchy. He became the political secretary of the party ,and chief editor of Jomhouri-e Eslami, the party's official newspaper.

In mid-1979, he was appointed by Khomeini to the Iranian Council of Islamic revolution.

The other opposition leader is Mehdi Karroubi. He is a founding member and former chairman of the Association of Combatant Clerics party.

In 1978, Karroubi retired from law in order to commit to politics. In 1979, he joined the Iranian Revolution. Karroubi was the head of the Imam Khomeini Relief Committee and the Martyr's Foundation shortly after Iranian revolution.

Renegade Eye said...

Confused: I agree with Juan Cole's post overall.

Ducky: I think the current events, are going to ignite the Green Movement in Iran. Today 350,000 demonstrated in Iran.

I agree with you about the Copts.

Pagan: Israel isn't going to bomb anyone soon. Israel can beat Egypt 20x in a row, and Egypt will survive. All Egypt has to win, is once. Egypt has way more people.

Muslims are not a monolith. They have different class and political differences.

Titan: Muslim Brotherhood is not going to take over. They are tarnished as being close to Mubbarak.

They played only a minor role in the revolution.

The US loved them, when Nasser was on top.

Sentinel: I agree with you about Mousavi. Some have illusions in him. Overall the Green Movement, goes beyond what he suggests. He only supports legal demonstrations. The masses go out, when they want to go out.

I don't see any demands for a religious state.

Muslims are not a monolith, or static. Remember the Inquisition?

Larry Gambone said...

Pagan, the invasions of the past tended not to replace the resident population. For example "Anglo-Saxon" England - even in Kent, Essex about 60% of the population are of Celtic ancestry according to research from the Human Genome Project. I suspect the "Arabs" of Egypt, are more likely a mix of Greeks,non-Arab Semites, Copts (in ref. to the original Egyptians, not the religion) as much as they are Arabic.

One of the reasons the Arabs were able to take Egypt - and Syria and Palestine away from the Byzantine Empire was due to a relgious dispute between these peoples and Constantinople. They were branded as "Monophisite heretics" as they disputed certain aspects of the Trinity. As "Monophisites" they were closer in view to Islam and thus welcomed the Arabs as liberators. Indeed as late as the 14C most of Egypt was Coptic Christian.

The Pagan Temple said...

Larry-

Thanks, that's interesting, I didn't know all that. Also, I found out that Egypt lost a third of its population due to the plaque at some point, so that is doubtless a factor as well.

By the way, Titan is not Beak.

Ren-

Israel can beat Egypt 20x in a row, and Egypt will survive. All Egypt has to win, is once.

Listen to yourself sometimes. You might as well come out and say the Egyptians would eliminate them. If that's what your saying, I agree.

I think the Israelis have made it pretty clear they won't allow themselves to be conquered. If it comes down to it, I have no doubt they'd turn the whole region into a nuclear inferno before they would allow that to happen.

Titan said...

They are tarnished as being close to Mubbarak.

Close to Mubbarak, the man who banned their political activity? RU drunk?

Titan said...

Muslim Brotherhood is not going to take over. Short of a Martian invasion, what's to stop them? And don't try and claim that they don't seek power. Power is their raison d'eter.

The Sentinel said...

Larry:

A few clarifications:

“about 60% of the population are of Celtic ancestry”

There is no such thing as Celtic ancestry in ethnic terms.

Celtic is a cultural term and encompasses a range genetic phenotypes.

More detail below.

“according to research from the Human Genome Project”

Much of the HGP has already been thoroughly discredited and its core findings rendered outdated and superfluous.

Here are just two articles on this:

"12 % of the DNA Differs Amongst Human Races and Populations: Till now, humans of different races were thought almost identical.

The Human Genome Project found all humans to have a 99.9 % similar genetic content and identity, but this is challenged by a new more detailed research suggesting a higher genetic diversity, with further medical and evolutionary implications..."


Source

"The genetic makeup of the human race is much more varied than previously believed, new research shows.

Scientists say that surprisingly many large chunks of human DNA differ among individuals and ethnic groups..."


Source


“the invasions of the past tended not to replace the resident population”

In the UK, an average of 80% of Britons – even today after such immigration – can trace their ancestry back to at least 12000 years in the British Isles.

Link

Or in more detail ‘the first evidence for the post-LGM (re-)inhabitation of Britain is now generally held to be the so-called Cresswellian culture, named after Cresswell Crags in Derbyshire, and dated to around 12.5 kya. It is most probable these hunter-gatherer settlers were descended from people who left the Franco-Cantabrian refugium after the ice age.

Although not yet proven scientifically, the preponderance of the evidence indicates that they were also the descendants of the Cro-magnon people who populated much of Europe prior to the last ice age. So if we choose to interpret indigenous as meaning ‘first on the scene’, then the UP Creswellians and their descendants are probably the real indigenous Britons, just as negritos are the real indigenous Indians.

So the question then arises, who are the descendants of the Cresswellians amongst the present native British population? The short answer is that we don’t really know, but it is close to a racing certainty that the Cro-Magnons and the post-glacial western and northern European hunter-gatherers as well as the people who constructed the Mesolithic and early Neolithic megaliths found throughout the region, were all members of the same partilineal lineage, represented by Y-hg I and, in particular sub-group I1a.

The rationale for this claim is that I is the only haplogroup still present in western Europe which is known to pre-date the LGM, and is also probably the only Y-haplogroup that originates in Europe itself. About 14% of British males are members of I1, and a further 2-3% are members of the closely related I2b group. Thus, on the basis of first in = indigenous, some 16-17% of British males could make that claim...

The Sentinel said...

The next wave, or really successive waves, of incomers from the continent took place in the early-to-mid Neolithic, continuing into the bronze and iron ages, and it is this influx which has left the greatest genetic imprint on the British population. Around 70-85% of the male population (depending on the country; less in England, more in Ireland) have the patrilineal ancestry defined by the Y-hg R1b. This influx, which we call today the ‘Celts’ continued on and off for over two thousand years, although Celt is something of a misnomer since many of the so-called ‘Anglo-Saxons’ who migrated from NW Europe between 500BC and 500AD were also R1b. A better term to describe this group as a whole might be Celto-Germanic, since that emphasises their common genetic origin in the Pontic steppe area but delineates their evolved cultures and linguistic differentiation within the greater Indo-European category.

Along with the R1b Anglo-Saxons also came a significant influx of ‘pre-celto-germanics’, members of Y-hg I2b. These people, like the I1a population of Britain were descendants of the hunter-gatherers who emerged from the Franco-Cantabrian refugium in the late UP. About 4-5% of British males are members of Y-hg I2b

The next (and last) sizeable (ie measurable) wave of migration occurred in the 8th and 9th century, namely the Viking incursions from Scandinavia principally from what is now Denmark and southern Norway. They brought the northern European patrilineal Y-Hg R1a which, like its central European counterpart R1b, originated in what is now southern Ukraine.

At this point we can draw a line, since by the time of the creation of England as a unitary nation-state in the early 10th century its genetic profile was established, and would remain essentially unaltered for over a thousand years until the Afro-Asian influx of the last two generations. But what about the Normans? Well, in the first instance, they were very few of them, and they were an admixture of R1a and R1b. Flemish weavers? R1b. Huguenots? R1b. Dutch fen-drainers? R1b.

So there we have it. Some 95% of British males have a patrilineage which dates back over a thousand years. On the matrilineal side the picture is also one of long term stability following the LGM. Mt-haplogroups present in Britain are also of great antiquity, and some 85% of the population share one of three main haplo-metagroups: HV, UK and TJ. Some of these (H and V) probably derive from the post-LGM re-population by UP hunter-gathers, others such as U5a are of Mesolithic origin, while U3-4/K and JT are of Indo-European origin and appear first during the Neolithic. But whatever the original source, each of these has been present in British Isles for many miillenia.

Based on the foregoing it is then reasonable to for anyone who is member of Y-Hg I1a, I2b, R1a or Rib and/or Mt-Hg HV, U3-5/K or JT to claim indigenous status.’

Renegade Eye said...

I have a new post tonight. Some of this discussion can move to the new post.



Titan: My next post will deal with the current situation in Egypt. Much of Mubbarak's government is still calling the shots.

The Muslim Brotherhood are not too strong. They were discredited for negotiating with Mubarrak's representatives.

Muslim Brotherhood is not going to take over. Short of a Martian invasion, what's to stop them? And don't try and claim that they don't seek power. Power is their raison d'eter.

They have no program to take power. Nobody wants Sharia or Sharia Light. They see what Iran looks like.

Pagan: Egypt is the only actual threat to Israel. They can absorb more losses. Nobody is overturning Camp David.

Sentinel: I'll let Larry reply.

Titan said...

They have no program to take power. Nobody wants Sharia or Sharia Light.

Two false statements already disproven. They (the BH) HAVE a "program" and the people DO want it (see the survey % posted above).

Stop standing in de Nile, Ren. Egypt is about to become the ME's largest theocracy.

Joe Conservative said...

Like Iran, Egypt is going to need another revolution before they are dissuaded of the efficacy inherent in Islamic theocracy through the eventual erosion Myth of the Adminstrators of the Commons.

In other words, the mullahs are no better than Mubareks thugs, are no better than military dictators. The ring of Gyges compact of power envually serves to unwind the myth. And so the Egyptian people will be left to learning from their mistake of leaving goverment to the useless, but better educated (something Obama voters have lately woken up to). ;)

Larry Gambone said...

Thanks for the information up date Sentinel, my information on English genetics was about 5 years old. But it only further supports my contention that the continuity among populations - at least in Europe and the Mediterranean are more important than the discontinuities.

Renegade Eye said...

Joe Conservative: My post above this, is about the problems with the military leading the transition. Theocracy is not the future of Egypt. They know what happened to Iran.

The US supported theocracy in Iran, as part of a strategy to surround the Soviet Union with Islamist countries.

I wish Hillary Clinton would shut her mouth. She is not helping.

Titan: Having a soup kitchen in a country of some 83 million people, is not a program. The Muslim Brotherhood must have a sophisticated strategy, because they were minor players in the revolution.

Where was the calls for Sharia?

Titan said...

Where were the calls for sharia? Where you'd expect them, of course. There will be a "price" to be paid for compromise and peace with the Brotherhood. And the "bride price" will undoubtedly be "Shari'a".